Races an early test of Obama influence
By LIZ SIDOTI
AP National Political Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - In a very early test of President Barack
Obama's political influence, two states are choosing whether to
continue Democratic rule while voters elsewhere elect a handful of
congressmen and big-city mayors.
Elected just a year ago, the president has spent a considerable
amount of time and energy trying to ensure that Democrats win
governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey and pick up a GOP-held
congressional seat in upstate New York.
In doing so, Obama raised the stakes of a low-enthusiasm
off-year election season - and risked political embarrassment if
any lost.
All three could.
Heading into Tuesday's elections, Democrat gubernatorial
candidate R. Creigh Deeds was trailing Republican Bob McDonnell in
polls by double digits in Virginia. In a three-way race in New
Jersey, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine was in a close race with
Republican Chris Christie and independent Chris Daggett. And in the
race to fill the vacant 23rd Congressional District seat in New
York, Democrat Bill Owens was in a tight fight with conservative
Doug Hoffman after the GOP's hand-picked candidate bowed out over
the weekend.
McDonnell cast his ballot this morning in suburban Richmond;
Deeds voted near his home in rural Bath County.
Polls opened at 6 a.m. EST and, unlike during last year's
presidential election, lines haven't been long. A few voters in
Suffolk in Virginia's South Side had registration problems when
they appeared in the electronic poll log as absentee voters, but
the problem was quickly corrected, deputy registrar Burdette
Lawrence said.
Elsewhere, California Lt. Gov. John Garamendi is expected to
maintain the Democratic Party's hold on the open 10th Congressional
District seat near San Francisco, while New York Mayor Michael
Bloomberg is expected to cruise to a third term. Atlanta, Houston,
Boston, Detroit and Pittsburgh also will elect mayors, while voters
in Maine and Washington weigh in on same-sex unions and voters in
Ohio decide whether to allow casinos.
To be sure, it's easy to overanalyze the results of such a small
number of elections in a few places. The results will only offer
hints about the national political landscape and clues to the
public's attitudes. And the races certainly won't predict what will
happen in the 2010 midterm elections.
``The results of these elections tend to be overread,'' former
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said Tuesday on NBC's
``Today.'' ``These are local races. There's 18,000 lifetimes
between now and next November.''
But, given that Democrats control the White House and Congress,
defeats in Virginia - a new swing state in national elections - or
New Jersey - a Democratic stronghold - would be setbacks for the
White House, even though both states having long histories of
electing governors from a political party opposite that of the
president.
After all, this is a president who won a year ago in an
electoral landslide after building a fundraising and organizational
juggernaut that attracted scores of new voters into what Obama
loyalists have called a movement. And this is a party that has
comfortable majorities in the House and Senate - and that controls
governor's mansions in Virginia and New Jersey.
As the Democratic Party chief, Obama had little choice but to
work hard to elect Corzine and Deeds; doing otherwise would have
been seen by the base as a breach of duty.
So, he campaigned several times for Corzine and raised money for
Deeds. Obama also was featured in campaign advertisements for both.
He characterized the success of their candidacies as key components
for the White House to make good on its political promises and
advance its agenda. And he deployed the Democratic National
Committee and his own political campaign arm, Organizing for
America, to ensure the swarms of new voters he attracted in 2008
turn out even if he's not on the ballot.
Of the two races, a Republican victory in Virginia would be the
most telling about potential trouble ahead for Democrats as they
compete in swing states next fall.
Long reliably Republican in national races, Virginia is a new
swing state. It's home to a slew of northern bellwether counties
filled with swing-voting independents who carried Obama to victory
last fall, the first Democrat to win the state in a White House
race since 1964. Rapidly growing counties like Loudoun and Prince
William swung toward Democrats in the 2005 governor's race,
previewing an Obama win three years later.
Conversely, New Jersey is a traditional Democratic-leaning state
with an incumbent Democratic governor. As such, it's the trickier
of the two for Republicans to win - and yet the GOP just might.
11/03/09 12:52
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